Over Under Win Totals Nfl

4/12/2022

The 2020 NFL season is scheduled to begin on September 10th, and the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are betting favorites to win another title at Super Bowl LV in Tampa next February.

Nfl Over Under Win Totals Vegas Odds
Over Under Win Totals Nfl
Caesars Nfl Over Under Win Totals

Once again, the over/unders for all 32 teams are tricky to navigate going into the 2019 season. First, below are all of those over/under win totals for NFL teams in 2019, courtesy of BetOnline.ag. Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.Normally, we'd have to wait much longer for NFL win totals to dominate the market, but in this sports. Over Under Betting is also known as “Game Total Betting” and you will often see it be referred to as either term. Beginner NFL bettors may be confused by Over Under Betting, but it is very easy to learn and understand once explained. Super Bowl 51 Over/Under is set at 58.5. Click Here for a $250 FREE Bet at Bovada.

Before the season kicks off, FTW’s Steven Ruiz, Charles Curtis and Nick Schwartz made their over/under picks for every NFL team’s projected win total.

Teams are listed with their listed 2020 win total, per BetMGM, along with their under/over odds, listed in that order. For example, the Cardinals are currently listed at 6.5 (+135/-164), meaning a bettor gets +135 odds on under 6.5, and -164 odds on over 6.5.

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Arizona Cardinals: 6.5 (+135/-164)
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
Steven: Over
The defense can’t be as bad as it was a season ago and I have every reason to believe the offense will take off now that Kyler Murray has a year of experience under his belt and a new No. 1 receiver to work with in DeAndre Hopkins. – Steven Ruiz

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 (-121/+100)
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
The Falcons won 6 of their last 8 in 2019 to salvage a 7-9 season, but the NFC South is tougher this year, and the Falcons face the fifth toughest schedule in the league by record. – Nick Schwartz

Baltimore Ravens: 11.5 (-115/-105)
Steven: Over
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Elite offense, incredible defense, good schedule. At least 12 wins should be no problem. – Charles Curtis

Buffalo Bills: 8.5 (+120/-143)
Steven: Over
Nick: Over

Nfl Over Under Win Totals Vegas Odds

Charles: Over
I do think the Buffalo hype to win the AFC East is a tad too much heading into 2020, but as long as the defense clamps down again and Josh Allen doesn’t completely implode, I could see a 9-7 season in Western New York. – CC

Carolina Panthers: 5.5 (+100/-120)
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
There's zero continuinty and too much for new coach Matt Rhule's staff and players to prove in a division with two potentially great teams. – NS

Chicago Bears: 8.5 (-176/+145)
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
How is their win total so high?!?! Does Vegas know something we don’t? Are the Bears hiding a competent starting quarterback somewhere on the roster? The defense is not as deep as it was a year ago and the offense seems to be getting worse. This is an eight-win team at best. – SR

Cincinnati Bengals: 5.5 (+115/-139)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
I do think Joe Burrow and the offense will be good enough to win a few games, but there are too many question marks on defense to consider the over. – CC

Cleveland Browns: 8.5 (+105/-125)
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
I went back and forth here, but ultimately landed on eight wins. The division is tough, and although I’m buying into Baker Mayfield getting a boost from new coach Kevin Stefanski, I think it’s another up-and-down season. – CC

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 (+135/-164)
Steven: Over
Nick: Under
Charles: Over
I see a bargain here. The offense – now with first-round pick CeeDee Lamb – is going to be among the most balanced in the league, and the defense has a terrific front seven. At least ten wins will be more than doable. – CC

Denver Broncos: 7.5 (+115/-139)
Nick: Over
Charles: Under

Over Under Win Totals Nfl

Steven: Over
Even if Drew Lock stumbles in his second season, there is just too much talent on this roster for it to fail. And I have faith in Vic Fangio to build a top-10 defense with the players he has at his disposal. That should be enough to keep Denver around .500 all season. – SR

Detroit Lions: 6.5 (+115/-139)
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
Steven: Over
While I’m not jumping on the Lions’ bandwagon like a lot of NFL analysts are this offseason, this team is a lot better than what we saw last year in Detroit. They lost just about every close game they were in and Matthew Stafford missed nearly half the season. Six wins seems to be Detroit’s floor. – SR

Green Bay Packers: 9 (-139/+115)
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
Steven: Under
I like the Packers to win the division, but the smart money is on the under. The Packers were one of the worst 13-3 teams we’ve ever seen based on point differential and DVOA, so some regression is expected. And it’s not like the front office significantly upgraded the roster to prevent the team from taking its expected steps back. – SR

Houston Texans: 7.5 (-120/+100)
Steven: Over
Charles: Under
Nick: Under
Can David Johnson stay healthy and produce at a high level? Can the combined powers of Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks replace DeAndre Hopkins? I have my doubts, and since I'm expecting the Titans to still be good and the Colts to take a leap forward, 7-9 or worse for Houston feels like the safer bet. – NS

Indianapolis Colts: 8.5 (+145/-176)
Steven: Over
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
The Colts upgraded at QB with Philip Rivers, have been solid in the draft in recent years, sit in a winnable division and have very winnable games against the NFC North this year. This one's easy. – NS

Jacksonville Jaguars: 5 (-164/+135)
Steven: Under
Charles: Under Over under win totals for nfl teams

Nick: Over
The key here is that you're safe if the Jags get to five. If the line was 5.5, I'd go under, but getting plus-odds for a team that per PFF simulations should win 6.2 games is a solid bet. – NS

Kansas City Chiefs: 11.5 (+110/-130)
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Steven: Over
Even with Patrick Mahomes hobbled for a chunk of the season, the Chiefs still managed to win 12 games in 2019. With rookie RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the fold, the offense could be even better and the defense should only improve in Steve Spagnuolo’s second season. – KC

Las Vegas Raiders: 7.5 (-115/-105)
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
Steven: Under
The Raiders were not a very good team last year, and a lot of the reinforcements they brought in this offseason aren’t sure things. The defense still looks bad on paper and Jon Gruden has had trouble adjusting his offense in the second half of games. This is a seven-win team on paper. – SR

Los Angeles Chargers: 7.5 (+110/-134)
Charles: Under
Nick: Under
Steven: Over
The quarterback situation is concerning, but there is just too much talent on the roster for this team not to win eight games. Barring the typical Chargers luck we’ve seen take this team down in the past, of course. – SR

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5 (-125/+105)
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
Steven: Over
Everything went wrong for the Rams last year. Injuries and poor close-game luck prevented Los Angeles from making it back to the playoffs, but even with everything going wrong, the team still finished with nine wins. A reversal in fortune will allow the Rams to hit the over, even if it doesn’t lead to a playoff berth. – SR

Miami Dolphins: 6 (+125/-150)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
I think Miami will surprise some opponents this year, but they’ll fall just short of their win total at five victories. – CC

Minnesota Vikings: 8.5 (+130/-159)
Nick: Under
Charles: Over
Steven: Under
The Vikings intentionally took a step back this offseason in order to get their cap situation in order. As a result, Minnesota lost a lot of veteran talent and the young guys — the Vikings made 15 picks in the draft! — will need some time to get up to speed. While the offseason approach may benefit the team down the line, it could be a frustrating 2020 season in Minnesota. – SR

New England Patriots: 9.5 (-125/+105)
Nick: Under
Steven: Over
Charles: Over
If there’s anything we’ve learned from betting against Bill Belichick over the years, it’s this: don’t bet against Bill Belichick. – CC

New Orleans Saints: 10.5 (-120/+100)
Steven: Over
Charles: Over
Nick: Over
There's no reason the Saints shouldn't win 11 or 12 games this year. Even if Drew Brees misses time, Jameis Winston is a capable replacement. Easy over at +100. – NS

New York Giants: 6.5 (-164/+135)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Under
Daniel Jones should take a step forward, but the defense isn’t good and they’ll play the Cowboys and Eagles twice each. I’m shocked it’s not lower than 6.5. – CC

New York Jets: 6.5 (-115/-106)
Steven: Under
Nick: Under
Charles: Under
Yes, last year’s second-half schedule was swiss-cheesy easy. Sure, maybe Sam Darnold and Co. take another step forward. But, this year’s schedule is much, much harder. Second-hardest, to be exact. So I’ll take the under. – CC

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5 (-125/+105)
Steven: Under
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
This was the toughest of the bunch. Can the Eagles get to 10 wins with uncertainty in their receiving corps? Is Darius Slay going to solve what ailed their secondary? I went with the over … but I’m not that certain of it, given that I’m also assuming the Cowboys win the division. – CC

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9 (-105/-115)
Steven: Over
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Getting Ben Roethlisberger back is so huge and we know from last season just how good this defense can be at every position. I love the over here as the Steelers snag a Wild Card spot. – CC

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5 (-105/-115)
Nick: Over
Charles: Over
Steven: Over
There are legitimate questions about the receiving corps, but the 49ers are loaded everywhere else on the roster. And they have Kyle Shanahan around to mitigate the weakness at receiver. San Francisco isn’t going anywhere. – SR

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5 (-115/-105)
Nick: Under
Charles: Over
Steven: Under
The Seahawks’ 2019 point differential and record in close games suggests they were lucky to make the playoffs and win 11 games. As good as Russell Wilson is, he’s not going to be able to fight off that regression on his own. Even if the team as a whole improves, getting to 10 wins in a difficult division will be hard. – SR

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 10 (-125/+105)
Steven: Over
Charles: Under
Nick: Under
The receiving corps is undoubtedly great, but I'm just not willing to bet on 43-year-old Tom Brady, especially when I'm safe if they hit 10-6. – NS

Tennessee Titans: 8.5 (+115/-139)
Steven: Under
Charles: Under
Nick: Over
Tennessee hasn't managed a record other than 9-7 since 2015, and with a fairly easy schedule to deal with, I'm predicting another 9-7 campaign in 2020. – NS

Washington: 5 (+105/-125)
Steven: Over
Nick: Under
Charles: Over
There are a lot of reasons to take the under, but I’ve been wrong before about a team that I think could be one of the NFL’s worst (remember that time I thought the Jets wouldn’t win a game that one year? I do!). So I’ll say they find a way to get to six wins. – CC

Do you bet a team will win more than the 9 games they’re projected to win or under?

This article will answer that question. It will lay out examples you need to consider making educated bets on teams’ projected win totals so when you wager win totals, you will increase your odds of winning.

This article gives you a blueprint and the examples are not telling you who to bet on and who to stay away from. Instead, it will give you a blueprint to research specific factors that will affect a team’s win-loss record.

Nothing is set in the NFL and even the most educated bettor can’t predict a perfect over-under on win totals. However, you can put yourself in the best position to win such bets if you know what to do.

Let’s explore 5 factors to consider when betting on NFL win totals.

1- Strength of Schedule

The 1st factor is the most important. Analyze strength of schedule before you place a bet on either an over or under.

If a team projects somewhere in the 9-10 win column but they’re playing in a weak division plus the AFC and NFC division they’re slated to play is also weak…

They will probably win more than their allotted number of games.

You can say the same for teams slated to win that same number but are playing in the league’s toughest division and are playing a tougher AFC or NFC division.

In that case, you want to bet the under.

Caesars Nfl Over Under Win Totals

Strength of schedule is the overall indicator whether to bet the over or the under on projected win totals.

But there are other factors to consider that can show otherwise. I’m laying out 3 factors to consider before ending with a final factor you must consider.

2- Strength of Division

This one’s important. Suppose there are 3 solid teams playing in the same division and it has happened in the past.

There have been times the worst record in a division is 7-9, meaning all 4 teams can win. It also means all 4 teams can fall short of their odds.

Yes, 1 or 2 of those teams might reach and exceed their projected win total. It also means 1 or 2 won’t.

Instead, focus on teams whose divisions possess a larger discrepancy of team talent. If a rebuilding team or 2 are in the same division along with an above-average team, this could be a potential home run.

Especially if a team you’re targeting appears to have middle of the road talent. It’s likely this team will exceed their projected win total since 2 teams they’re playing will not win many games.

There are no guarantees, but a team like the Buffalo Bills are a good example of this in 2020. Per CBS sports, they’re projected to win 9 games. The New England Patriots are also sitting at 9.

The Bills, as evidenced in 2019, are on the rise.

They also traded for one of the better receivers in the game in Stefon Diggs. Their defense was phenomenal in 2019. One of the best in the league.

Who else is in their division?

2 weak teams in the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. Neither figure to do much unless the Football Gods have a miracle up their sleeves.

Let’s look at the Patriots. Right now their potential quarterbacks are Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. A journeyman and a 2nd-year player drafted on the last day of the draft. Lightning doesn’t strike twice often in the NFL if you know where I’m going with Stidham.

That said, the Bills would be great to bet an over and the Patriots would be safe to bet the under.

Yes, Bill Belichick is still in New England.

But it’s hard for even a good team to win without a decent quarterback. Just ask Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I’m not telling you what to do and who to bet on. I’m just laying out examples clarifying what I mean here and nothing more.

3- Offseason Roster Moves

Did teams you’re targeting to wager win totals on receive offseason makeovers?

If so, stop.

Many of these teams might look good on paper, but in reality, you’ll rarely see them break out. It happens, but most of the time these are oddsmaker traps.

Teams who may have signed a marquee quarterback, but have little more to work with are examples.

If a team overhauled their roster and most of the team hasn’t experienced playing together, it’s also a red flag.

Look for teams who’ve made roster moves to fill missing gaps. Too often, novice NFL gamblers will wager teams who made moves equivalent to what’s seen in Madden Franchise mode with the salary cap turned off.

This is real life, not a video game. Players need time to mesh and new rookies need time to get used to the NFL game. Some rookies adapt faster than others but they all go through growing pains.

Keep away from teams who are rebuilding and even if they nabbed a prize free agent or two, don’t be tempted. Teams like this might also make a blockbuster trade in the draft or before it. Again, stay away.

A good way to increase your odds of winning an over is to look for teams that are one or two pieces away.

Teams like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, who signed Tom Brady, are a good example. The Buccaneers already have one of the best receiving duos in football and now they added an accomplished quarterback.

They have a solid defense, ranking 15th in yards allowed in 2019. They held onto a lot of players.

They also have to compete with the New Orleans Saints in the NFC South and they play Green Bay and Minnesota, 2 more playoff teams from the year before.

Add in the Super Bowl 54 champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Tampa’s path isn’t the easiest.

But they have a Tom Brady who can still sling it with an offense full of Pro Bowl-caliber players who’ve been in Tampa since their rookie seasons.

The Bucs went 7-9 last season with Jameis Winston, who proved to be a turnover machine and constantly gave opponents a short field. They put up a lot of points with Winston, and now they have a quarterback who takes care of the ball.

Online Oddsmakers will have the Buccaneers ranked higher than in 2019. They’re also likely to have Green Bay and New Orleans, the latter being a division rival, with a higher win total.

CBS sports have 8 NFC teams chosen to win more than the Buccaneers, who are sitting at 9 as I write this. It’s what I mean when I say the Buccaneers are safer picks for an over.

It’s not a guarantee, and this number can change but it shows that even inserting just one missing piece like Brady won’t skyrocket their over-under win total.

4- Roster Stability

News recently broke that the New England Patriots traded longtime tight-end who took 2019 off to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to reunite with Tom Brady. Oddsmakers are upping Tampa’s win total as I write this.

Gronkowski and Brady won 3 Super Bowls together with the Patriots, and Gronkowski will be 31 when the 2020 season begins.

Anyone who wagers money on NFL win totals in 2020 will take a hard look at Tampa. The Bucs also have arguably the best pair of receivers in football in Curtis Godwin and Mike Evans.

They have a fair tight-end in O. J. Howard to team with Gronkowski.

Looking at Tampa’s roster outside Brady and Gronkowski, it’s relatively stable. There are a lot of names from the last 2 seasons who are still with the team today. Now, they inserted a quarterback who doesn’t specialize in throwing the ball to the other team 30 times a season.

They also have a proven winner with Bruce Arians at head coach. This is a primary example of a team with a solid, stable roster who added through the draft and free agency. The Bucs will be a smart pick for an over.

Contrast this with the 2019 Browns, who oddsmakers believed would win the AFC North and far more games than the 6 games they won in reality.

Anyone dissecting Cleveland’s roster last offseason should’ve known. They had a rookie head coach in Freddie Kitchens. They had 2 new starters in the defensive backfield. They traded for a player whose brand is larger than the city of Cleveland in Odell Beckham Jr.

Also, the Browns had discipline problems dating back to the preseason when sporting outlets reported the number of fights the team started in joint practices with the Colts.

The smart gambler would’ve stayed away from them.

Baker Mayfield jawed too often with the media. Myles Garrett missed the last 6 games after getting suspended for swinging a helmet at Steelers’ quarterback Mason Rudolph. Garrett was flagged earlier in the season for throwing an open-handed punch at Delanie Walker.

Beckham continually drew attention to himself on things that weren’t football-related.

Again, any gambler who conducted research would’ve stayed away from the Browns.

The better bet for an over would’ve been the 14-2 Ravens, who hardly any oddsmaker had winning the AFC North prior to the 2019 preseason. Despite far more roster and coaching stability than Cleveland. Sure, they had a new quarterback, but most everything else was intact.

Especially the system the team had in place.

Don’t worry so much about who’s on the roster. It could be a roster full of Pro Bowl players but if they haven’t played together, they’re not a good wager. Even if oddsmakers say differently.

5- Research Divisions Other than Your Favorite Team’s

I don’t care how much you say you won’t, you will always overrate your favorite team. And you will always underrate their division rivals. My recommendation is that you wager over-under win totals on the opposite conference.

My favorite team is in the AFC and I know I will have a strong bias toward them.
The best thing for me to do is bet on the NFC.

Even if oddsmakers predict your favorite team will have lower win totals and it’s easier for them to overcome odds.

Don’t bet on them. Go to the other conference and wager them.

Conclusion

It seems like a lot, but it isn’t. If you follow the NFL year-round, pay attention to the league’s scheduling formula, and note who’s playing who, you will bet well predicting win totals.

Don’t make the mistakes in just looking at win totals and playing a guessing game.

And never bet the over if a team merely signed marquee players and drafted a few studs who never played on the same team.

There’s a lot that goes into increasing your odds on win totals and the best time to think about who you’re betting on is after the league schedule is generated in the spring, following the NFL Draft.

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